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Ian Gilyeat - Independent

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Recent Posts

  1. We need more risk takers...
    Friday, July 06, 2012
  2. This is not an endorsement...
    Sunday, June 17, 2012
  3. A heartfelt thanks...
    Sunday, June 10, 2012
  4. China, oil and the cost of gas...
    Saturday, March 17, 2012
  5. Disclosures from Bernanke at the Federal Reserve?
    Tuesday, March 13, 2012
  6. "I'm so happy that I didn't sneeze..."
    Monday, January 16, 2012
  7. Sound bites or serious problem solving?
    Monday, January 09, 2012
  8. Purple hearts and more...
    Friday, November 11, 2011
  9. What does a "fiscal hawk" look like in the Washington beltway?
    Saturday, November 05, 2011
  10. Big bank bailout? Or shareholders got rolled by Fannie Mae?
    Saturday, October 01, 2011

Selling us a bill of goods...

You've heard the saying, "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is."  This is a saying my parents drilled into my head while growing up.  It goes along with  "Don't be gullible. Don't be foolish.  You can't believe everything you're told."

When a politician rattles off a long list of promises and that will suddenly happen because of a new bill...first, cover your wallet.  Second, remember the first saying, "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is."

Here is a long list of promises, referred to by President Obama as he recently unveiled the American Jobs Act:

- new jobs for Construction, Teachers, Veterans, First Responders, Young People and the Long-Term Unemployed.
- tax credits to companies that hire new workers
- tax relief to small business owners
- tax cuts for the middle class
- it won't add to the deficit
- reduce the deficit
- pay down our debt
- pay for jobs
- creates jobs right away
- government contract holders will get paid faster than you do right now
- eliminate red tape that prevents start-ups from raising capital
- help people refinance their homes
- put more than $2,000 a year in a family's pocket
- all small business owners will see their payroll taxes cut in half next year
- all businesses will be able to continue writing off investments made in 2012
- it will repair and modernize at least 35,000 schools
- put people to work fixing roofs and windows, installing science labs and high-speed Internet
- it will rehabilitate homes and businesses
- it will jump-start thousands of transportation projects
- low-income Americans will have more ladders out of poverty

This is a long, long list of promises and it just sounds..."too good to be true."

So, what should the Federal government do so we can create jobs?  Cut the corporate tax rate, eliminate burdensome regulations like Sarbanes-Oxley and let companies invest private capital - even at the risk of failure.  This is how jobs are created...

www.iangilyeat.com

The faith of a nation...

Today marks the anniversary of the attack on the World Trade Towers and the loss of many lives.  As Americans it was a stunning blow to our feelings of security and peace.  It has left an indelible mark on the lives of each one of us - whether we were in the Towers, in the City or anywhere in the country.

This singular attack on these grand buildings, the people working within and this great nation has poured flames on the debate of faith in our nation; but not just our nation - the faith of every nation.

The extremists and radicals on every side point to the evil of those with opposing views.  And yet, the wisdom of our Founding Fathers stands above the clamor and hollowness of this debate.

"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom." --Benjamin Franklin.

"Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people."  --John Quincy Adams

"...every man, conducting himself as a good citizen, and being accountable to God alone for his religious opinions, ought to be protected in worshiping the Deity according to the dictates of his own conscious".  -- George Washington

These three men had it right in their views that this is a land where people may worship how, where or what they may - and that good citizens are accountable to God alone for their religious beliefs.  This protection applies to Christians, Jews and Muslims alike.  Atheists, materialists or whatever label is attached, all are protected in their beliefs and in their worship - so long as we, "conduct ourselves as good citizens."

This is the key to the aftermath of 9/11 and the peace we all wish to have...

Religious beliefs are left to the judgement of God - let Him do what He will with each one of us... but the laws of this land require deference and respect.  They are intended to govern our affairs, one with another.  These laws protect our individual freedoms, including the right to pursue life, liberty and happiness.

America is a great nation and we must hold on to the faith of our nation - whatever faith that is - and protect the individual freedoms the Constitution guarantees to each person.  If we allow the tragedy of 9/11 to destroy this truly American identity, then we have allowed the enemies without to win.  As individuals we need to remember the feelings we each had on 9/12 and stand united as Americans. 

The faith our nation depends on it...

www.iangilyeat.com

Courage to love your neighbor is the answer...

The courage to love your neighbor as yourself is a difficult thing to do - in Israel or at home... and yet that is the solution to society's problems.  On the flight home from Israel yesterday I sat next to a Jewish woman from Russia who had immigrated to Israel 50+ years ago.  She now has a green card, as she said, "good for 30 years" to the United States.  She referred to the Palestinians as her cousins since "we are all the children of Abraham".  She offered no answers to the war only that they were fighting with their cousins...

From my perspective, as a visitor to Israel, acknowledging our common ancestry is a step in the right direction...

www.iangilyeat.com

Reality checks - on the debt limit debate...

Here are three reasons why we should call "bunk" on the fear tactics that have been extensively used on the national debt ceiling debate by the President, Mr. Geitner, Mr. Bernanke and the credit rating agencies:

1)  The United States debt ratio compared to Gross Domestic Product(GDP) just after World War II stood at 120%.  That's right - 120%.  Currently the U.S. is at roughly 96%.  This is not where we want it - BUT we can survive the current debt load.

2)  Today, Japan carries 250% of their GDP in debt.  Japan has not collapsed as a country and they remain a viable and important global economy.

3)  The Social Security "coffers" are a long way from running dry.  In fact, the Social Security Administration can by law, reclaim excess contributions made by the Social Security system, from the Treasury any time there is a short-fall in current contributions in order to "make good on the payout obligations" to Social Security beneficiaries.

"Every year from 1984 through 2009, Social Security revenues exceeded payments to beneficiaries...In 2010, the Social Security system ran it's first current account deficit since 1983...Congress spent these surpluses, and the U.S. Treasury issued the Social Security Trust Fund special bonds...and when the Social Security Administration [redeems these bonds with the Treasury] total government debt subject to the debt limit FALLS - thus freeing up the Treasury's ability to issue new bonds."
                                    --
Thomas R. Saving, former Trustee of the Social Security Trust Funds.

Did you get that?  Part of the national debt is to the Social Security system.  When we have a shortfall in contributions - as we do now - the Treasury can pay back the Social Security system and free up credit under the national debt ceiling.  So here's a novel idea - lets use some of the cheap money Mr. Geitner is printing, pay off our debts to the Social Security system and free up our credit line so we don't have to raise the national debt ceiling... then - let's get serious about cutting current programs and current spending - like ObamaCare...  

The harsh fact is that many people in Washington, on Wall Street and around the globe are masters at using Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) in order to advance their political agendas.  We see and hear this every day...when the career politicians play their political games and use the media to manipulate and confuse the public over economic realities. 

Raising the national debt limit is not necessary if Congress will get honest with the American people and use those cheap dollars to pay back the Social Security system. 

Raising taxes is also not necessary if our representatives will cut expenses.  Cutting expenses requires hard decisions - and I don't mean cutting projections in future budget years - this is simply a political ploy to continue spending at current levels. 

Even though the national debt limit is nearly certain to be raised tomorrow - this is clearly not the last time this debate will occur.  Will the ceiling hold next time?  Or will the career politicians once again cave to their own rhetoric and fear mongering?  When left to their own devices Congress will most certainly, once again, raise the debt limit and keep on spending... unless we tell Congress it's okay to cut expenses and hold the line on the national debt limit.

Contact your Congressman and demand that he/she say no to future increases in the national debt limit, cut expenses and get honest with the American people. 

Although lost in the scare tactics and rhetoric of the day, adding $2 trillion to our current debt on Tuesday does not make America a better risk than we were on Monday.
- without that $2 trillion in new debt. 

We are fooling ourselves if we think so and reality has long since left...

www.iangilyeat.com

Legalized theft - and why we love it.

Here's a simple question to ask to see if any of the hundreds, or thousands of laws on the books, qualify as "legalized theft".  Does the law take from one citizen at the expense of another - when doing the same thing as an individual - would be considered theft?

Let me give an example - the law is intended to protect property.  My neighbor, John, owns a car.  He worked hard in order to earn his money and buy a car for $5,000.  My other neighbor, Art, doesn't have a car.  So I decide to take John's car and give it to Art.  That is theft.

So what happens if I were able to get to John's money and take the $5,000 before he could spend it on that car he wanted to buy?  Is it still theft?  Of course it is.

Now let's look at it a different way, instead of taking John's $5,000 myself, I hire a professional thug from another neighborhood to take John's money and give it to Art.  Is it still theft?  Why, yes it is.

Okay, so let's consider the law of Social Security.  Instead of taking the money from John myself, I ask my representative in Congress, to get together with his buddies in Washington and take $5,000 from John and give it to Art.  Is it still theft?  Why, yes it is.  Just because I hire a professional politician in Washington instead of a thug in the neighborhood next door doesn't change the nature of the theft.  It is still theft.

Unfortunately, many of us will say, it's not theft, it is the law and it's moral and I feel good because I have taken care of my poor neighbor... which is exactly why we love to steal from our neighbors and feel good while doing it.  We have learned how to use the law to extract money from one neighbor and give it to another, including ourselves - and it is clearly  at the expense of the neighbors.  

So here's the deal: Our laws have become so corrupt we can no longer tell the difference between right and wrong and we simply assume that because it is the law - it is just and it is right.

Back when the Constitution was written, the laws were written to protect property and punish theft.  No more.  Now we have a privileged class of people (the law makers) that use the law to practice theft on a monumental scale - and they call it "good" instead of calling it what it is - theft... and we, the people, have bought into it hook, line and sinker.

I know - we need to pay taxes to fund the common good of protecting our lives, our property and our freedoms; but there is little that is fair or right or good about how taxes are levied today.

We need to throw out the professional politicians - they can no longer tell what's right and what's wrong.

www.iangilyeat.com

Is your Congressman a "wambach"?

Abby Wambach is one of the biggest stars in the women's World Cup soccer tournament.  In two games, in the final moments, she has used her head to put in decisive winning goals.

So how's your Congressman doing?  Does he use his head, in the final moments of the contest, and put in the decisive winning shot...?

Or does he lay down, give up and say, "oops, sorry Mr. President, I didn't really mean to get in your way...why don't we just give you control over the national debt limit and you can raise it whenever you think we should."

I'm looking for a "wambach"...can you tell me who it is?  Or is America just out of luck and out of time?

www.iangilyeat.com

U.S. capital markets have been swallowed by the Federal Government

Adam Smith would roll over in his grave...the U.S. Government is now the single largest source of outstanding mortgage loans and consumer credit loans.  This is a first - at least in modern history.

Not only does Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae originate nearly all mortgage loans in the country, which shouldn't surprise anyone, since Uncle Sam took over the two organizations in 2008 - Uncle Sam now holds the majority of ALL outstanding paper on houses and consumer credit in the U.S.

This is an ugly place to be - it is a house of cards waiting to fall. 

Uncle Sam owes $14.5 trillion and the U.S. consumer owes Uncle Sam roughly $6.5 trillion... so who is it that pays for all this debt?  You and me, the American worker.  Uncle Sam doesn't really have any money, now does he.  He only has what the private sector gives him... and right now, he's spending it faster than we can create it.

The harsh reality is unless we cut real expenses, the "free markets (i.e. capital markets)" that drive the American free market system, are going to come to a crashing halt and disappear.  Don't believe me?  Take a look at the mortgage market and tell me where the private sector, capital markets are today?  They darn near don't exist.  This is what will happen to the rest of the U.S. capital markets if we continue to let Uncle Sam take over private enterprise and "guarantee" companies against failure. 

We must let companies succeed or fail based on their own merits.  If we don't the capital markets will dry up and disappear - just like we see in private sector mortgages today.

www.iangilyeat.com

A balanced budget amendment will not change spending habits in Washington-here's why

Enacting a balanced budget amendment will not change the spending problems in Washington.  Here's what will happen IF a balance budget amendment passes:

Lawmakers will simply change their projections and assumptions to "balance the budget." 

It's really quite easy to do:

Increase revenue projections...
Decrease expense projections...

Magically the budget is balanced.  The spending habits won't change and the country can still go bankrupt.

Don't get me wrong - I'm in favor of a balanced budget but...

Balanced budget requirements don't stop companies from going broke - and they sure won't stop politicians from playing games with tax payer dollars. 

A balanced budget amendment is simply a requirement that says two numbers must match.  The revenue number must match the expense number.  It has nothing or little to do with reality or restraint.  It does not bring about a sudden surge in personal responsibility and "living within our means."

We have an integrity problem in Washington and a lack of business sense.  Anyone who has played the budget game in corporate America knows this.  For the politicians that are trying to argue otherwise - those that believe a balanced budget amendment will "force them to stop spending" - they are deluding themselves - and the American people.

www.iangilyeat.com

Chinese yuan rises - labor costs too - American's looking to move jobs

Outsourcing of jobs is not an American problem...and it does not make China a villain to American workers... it is an economic commentary on the cost of labor.

Today's Wall Street Journal carried a story on the rise of the yuan and the rise of labor costs - in China (read it here).  So what are American companies going to do as a result of these changes?  Those same American companies that moved American jobs to China in the first place?

They're going to move jobs out of China into lower labor cost markets, of course.  Indonesia and Vietnam are good destinations.

You see - China is not the problem - for American workers it is "lower cost of labor.

American companies are rewarded by shareholders and by customers for bringing the best product to market for the lowest cost possible.  This means constantly searching for lower labor costs, better efficiency, better products for the same cost, etc.  You get the picture.

We live in a capitalistic society and earning a profit is a key driver in cutting costs.  This is what's called a free market system and China is subject to it just like we are.

www.iangilyeat.com

The birth of a remarkable nation...

Today marks the birth of a remarkable nation.  A nation founded by men and women of faith.  A nation that has given a world of many nation's - the American dream... 

People from all around the globe beat a path to the shores of this great land for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  May God bless us that 200 years from now, the American people can still say the same thing....

"People from all over the world come here for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness."

www.iangilyeat.com